Get the brief
LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Brazil Presidential Election
Resolved market scorecard

Brazil Presidential Election: result and scorecard

Resolved Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 21.5%; a week before, 21.5%. $249.1M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
resolved October 26, 2026

Price 1 day before

21.5%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

21.5%
30 days before: 42.5%

Volume

$249.1M
32 outcomes

PoliticsMacro Election 2Main ElectionBrazilGlobal Elections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaWON$48.5M
Flávio BolsonaroLOST$62.2M
Renan SantosLOST$17.1M
Tarcisio de FreitasLOST$15.0M
Ratinho JúniorLOST$10.5M
Eduardo BolsonaroLOST$10.5M
Michelle BolsonaroLOST$10.4M
Geraldo AlckminLOST$9.4M
Eduardo LeiteLOST$8.0M
Ronaldo CaiadoLOST$7.8M
Fernando HaddadLOST$7.7M
Romeu ZemaLOST$7.7M
Jair BolsonaroLOST$7.6M
Camilo SantanaLOST$5.6M
Augusto CuryLOST$5.5M
Aldo RebeloLOST$5.0M
Tereza CristinaLOST$4.1M
Pablo MarçalLOST$4.0M
Helder BarbalhoLOST$2.4M
Person OLOST$0
Person PLOST$0
Person QLOST$0
Person RLOST$0
Person SLOST$0
Person TLOST$0
Person ULOST$0
Person VLOST$0
Person WLOST$0
Person XLOST$0
Person YLOST$0
Person ZLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-1904-0710-25
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaFlávio BolsonaroRenan SantosTarcisio de Freitas
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 22% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Brazil Presidential Election" resolve?
It resolved Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva around October 26, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 21.5% one day before close, 21.5% one week before and 42.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$249.1M across 32 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Presidential Election Winner 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Next French Presidential ElectionAlaska Senate Election WinnerMississippi Senate Election WinnerAll live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.