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Home / Markets / Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: result and scorecard

Resolved Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 39.1%; a week before, 24.3%. $10.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
resolved October 5, 2026

Price 1 day before

39.1%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

24.3%
30 days before: 7.3%

Volume

$10.9M
32 outcomes

BrazilPoliticsWorldGlobal ElectionsElections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaWON$2.3M
Flávio BolsonaroLOST$2.7M
Renan SantosLOST$1.5M
Fernando HaddadLOST$814K
Ratinho JúniorLOST$750K
Ronaldo CaiadoLOST$571K
Romeu ZemaLOST$422K
Augusto CuryLOST$290K
Tarcisio de FreitasLOST$275K
Geraldo AlckminLOST$234K
Michelle BolsonaroLOST$229K
Camilo SantanaLOST$208K
Jair BolsonaroLOST$205K
Eduardo BolsonaroLOST$174K
Aldo RebeloLOST$145K
Eduardo LeiteLOST$142K
Tereza CristinaLOST$37K
Helder BarbalhoLOST$22K
Person NLOST$0
Person OLOST$0
Person PLOST$0
Person QLOST$0
Person RLOST$0
Person SLOST$0
Person TLOST$0
Person ULOST$0
Person VLOST$0
Person WLOST$0
Person XLOST$0
Person YLOST$0
Person ZLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-1206-0910-05
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaFlávio BolsonaroRenan SantosFernando Haddad
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 39% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" resolve?
It resolved Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva around October 5, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 39.1% one day before close, 24.3% one week before and 7.3% one month before.
How much was traded?
$10.9M across 32 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.