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Home / Markets / Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Resolved market scorecard

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?: result and scorecard

Resolved Kevin Warsh. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 99.7%. $64.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Kevin Warsh
resolved May 14, 2026

Price 1 day before

100.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.7%
30 days before: 94.2%

Volume

$64.5M
35 outcomes

FedTrumpPoliticsFed RatesJerome Powell

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Kevin WarshWON$14.4M
Judy SheltonLOST$24.0M
Michelle BowmanLOST$10.6M
Scott BessentLOST$4.7M
Jerome PowellLOST$2.7M
Christopher WallerLOST$2.2M
Kevin HassettLOST$2.1M
Rick ReiderLOST$2.1M
Stephen MiranLOST$1.7M
OtherLOST$0
Person BLOST$0
Person CLOST$0
Person DLOST$0
Person ELOST$0
Person FLOST$0
Person GLOST$0
Person HLOST$0
Person ILOST$0
Person JLOST$0
Person KLOST$0
Person LLOST$0
Person MLOST$0
Person NLOST$0
Person OLOST$0
Person PLOST$0
Person QLOST$0
Person RLOST$0
Person SLOST$0
Person TLOST$0
Person ULOST$0
Person VLOST$0
Person WLOST$0
Person XLOST$0
Person YLOST$0
Person ZLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-0504-0905-14
Kevin WarshJudy SheltonMichelle BowmanScott Bessent
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" resolve?
It resolved Kevin Warsh around October 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and 94.2% one month before.
How much was traded?
$64.5M across 35 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Fed Decision in December?How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Fed Decision in January?Fed Decision in March?How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.