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Resolved market scorecard

Israeli Legislative Election Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved Likud. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.4%; a week before, 30.5%. $17.0M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 01:44 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Likud
resolved October 31, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.4%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

30.5%
30 days before: 42.5%

Volume

$17.0M
39 outcomes

PoliticsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsIsraelElections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
LikudWON$10.1M
YasharLOST$4.4M
TogetherLOST$2.5M
The DemocratsLOST$50K
Otzma YehuditLOST$47K
ShasLOST$20K
Party ALOST$0
Party BLOST$0
Party CLOST$0
Party DLOST$0
Party ELOST$0
Party FLOST$0
Party GLOST$0
Party HLOST$0
Party ILOST$0
Party JLOST$0
Party KLOST$0
Party LLOST$0
Party MLOST$0
Party NLOST$0
Party OLOST$0
Party PLOST$0
Party QLOST$0
Party RLOST$0
Party SLOST$0
Party TLOST$0
Party ULOST$0
Party VLOST$0
Party WLOST$0
Party XLOST$0
Party YLOST$0
Party ZLOST$0
Party AALOST$0
Party ABLOST$0
Party ACLOST$0
Party ADLOST$0
Party AELOST$0
Party AFLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%05-0208-0110-31
LikudYasharTogetherThe Democrats
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the optio

Frequently asked questions

How did "Israeli Legislative Election Winner" resolve?
It resolved Likud around October 28, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.4% one day before close, 30.5% one week before and 42.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$17.0M across 39 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.