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Home / Markets / Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb
Resolved market scorecard

Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.4%; a week before, 98.0%. $819K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:07 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved February 2, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.4%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.0%
30 days before: –

Volume

$819K
1 outcome

PoliticsTrumpGreenlandGeopoliticsEconomy

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$819K
NoWON$819K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-1801-2502-02
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

On January 17, Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, which would begin on February 1 and would remain in effect until a deal is struck for the US to purchase Greenland (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff on imports into the United States from one or more of the following countries — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland — goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended. A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from one or more of the listed countries goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting one or more of the listed countries or a specific set of countries including one or more of the listed countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution. An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from one or more of the listed countries will count. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?" resolve?
It resolved No around February 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.4% one day before close, 98.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$819K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.