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Live market data

Presidential Election Winner 2028: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Jon Ossoff at 20.5%, ahead of JD Vance at 18.1%. $733.7M traded across 55 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

20.5%
Jon Ossoff · Trade →

24h move

+2.6
pts · 7d +11.2

Volume

$733.7M
24h $2.0M · liquidity $52.3M

Closes

November 8, 2028
733 days left

PresidentUnited StatesUS ElectionElectionsPolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Jon Ossoff20.5% +2.6+11.2$6.6M0.6¢
JD Vance18.1% +1.5+1.0$18.6M0.1¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12.2% -0.3-0.5$14.4M0.1¢
Marco Rubio9.2% +0.8+0.4$13.4M0.1¢
Gavin Newsom7.2% -0.6-6.9$19.1M0.1¢
Ron DeSantis5.8% +0.4+3.8$12.9M0.1¢
Kamala Harris3.5% +0.5-0.6$9.7M0.1¢
Josh Shapiro2.6% 0.00.0$7.7M0.1¢
Pete Buttigieg2.5% 0.0-0.1$8.7M0.1¢
James Talarico1.6% +0.5-0.2$8.5M0.1¢
Donald Trump1.4% -0.1-0.4$11.0M0.1¢
Andy Beshear1.3% 0.0-0.6$19.5M0.1¢
Tucker Carlson1.1% -0.2-0.1$14.5M0.1¢
Wes Moore1.1% +0.30.0$13.0M0.1¢
Thomas Massie1.0% +0.1+0.1$8.7M0.2¢
Mark Kelly0.9% -0.1-0.2$1.0M0.1¢
Raphael Warnock0.9% -0.7-0.1$1.4M0.1¢
Ro Khanna0.8% 0.0-0.1$11.0M0.1¢
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson0.7% -0.2-0.3$8.6M0.1¢
Glenn Youngkin0.6% +0.4+0.4$28.9M0.2¢
Ivanka Trump0.5% 0.00.0$8.9M0.1¢
JB Pritzker0.4% 0.0-0.3$13.3M0.1¢
Donald Trump Jr.0.4% 0.0-0.1$14.2M0.1¢
Ted Cruz0.4% 0.0-0.1$943K0.1¢
Rahm Emanuel0.4% 0.00.0$828K0.1¢
Gretchen Whitmer0.4% 0.00.0$15.8M0.1¢
Michelle Obama0.3% 0.00.0$19.7M0.1¢
Tom Cotton0.3% +0.1+0.2$2.1M0.1¢
Stephen Smith0.1% +0.1+0.1$34.1M0.1¢
Elon Musk0.1% 0.0-0.1$28.4M0.1¢
Zohran Mamdani0.1% 0.0+0.1$23.2M0.1¢
Jamie Dimon0.1% 0.0-0.1$11.2M0.1¢
Tulsi Gabbard0.1% -0.1-0.1$35.7M0.2¢
Nikki Haley0.1% -0.1+0.1$32.0M0.2¢
Tim Walz0.1% 0.00.0$45.0M0.1¢
Vivek Ramaswamy0.1% 0.00.0$38.2M0.1¢
Greg Abbott0.1% 0.0-0.1$35.5M0.1¢
LeBron James0.1% 0.00.0$55.2M0.1¢
Kim Kardashian0.1% 0.00.0$40.4M0.1¢
Eric Trump0.1% 0.00.0$19.0M0.1¢
Pete Hegseth0.1% 0.00.0$10.6M0.1¢
Jalen Brunson0.1% 0.00.0$3.3M0.1¢
Abigail Spanberger0.1% 0.00.0$979K0.1¢
Hakeem Jeffries0.1% 0.00.0$289K0.1¢
Elissa Slotkin0.1% 0.00.0$899K0.1¢
Adam Schiff0.1% 0.00.0$952K0.1¢
Josh Stein0.1% 0.00.0$1.0M0.1¢
Alex Padilla0.1% 0.00.0$854K0.1¢
Candace Owens0.1% 0.00.0$591K0.1¢
Tim Scott0.1% 0.00.0$1.1M0.1¢
Mike Johnson0.1% 0.00.0$411K0.1¢
Doug Burgum0.1% 0.00.0$420K0.1¢
John N. Kennedy0.1% 0.00.0$413K0.1¢
Rick Scott0.1% 0.00.0$520K0.1¢
James Fishback0.1% 0.00.0$432K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%07-1903-1311-06
Jon OssoffJD VanceAlexandria Ocasio-CortezMarco Rubio

Market rules and resolution

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Jon Ossoff at 21% risks 21¢ to win 80¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
As of November 6, 2026, Jon Ossoff is the favorite at 20.5%, followed by JD Vance at 18.1%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$733.7M in total and $2.0M in the last 24 hours, with about $52.3M of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Democratic VP Nominee 2028Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?Marco Rubio announces a presidential run by...?Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?Jon Ossoff announces a presidential run by...?JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?Republican VP Nominee 2028All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.