Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49.0%, ahead of J.D. Vance at 37.5%. $728.7M traded across 44 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
United StatesPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsWorld Elections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49.0% | 0.0 |
| J.D. Vance | 37.5% | +3.5 |
| Marco Rubio | 19.6% | +0.6 |
| Ron DeSantis | 13.0% | -1.1 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 3.5% | +2.2 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.5% | +0.4 |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | +0.1 |
| Thomas Massie | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| Brian Kemp | 1.6% | +0.4 |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.3% | -0.3 |
| Donald Trump | 1.1% | +0.1 |
| Joe Kent | 0.9% | +0.4 |
| Byron Donalds | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Nikki Haley | 0.8% | +0.2 |
| John McEntee | 0.8% | +0.4 |
| Tom Cotton | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Rand Paul | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.4% | +0.1 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Josh Hawley | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Elon Musk | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Katie Britt | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Tim Scott | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1% | -0.2 |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Mike Pence | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Steve Bannon | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Tom Brady | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| John Thune | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the favorite at 49.0%, followed by J.D. Vance at 37.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $728.7M in total and $1.6M in the last 24 hours, with about $33.2M of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.