Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 220-239 at 15.7%, ahead of 240-259 at 15.3%. $511K traded across 27 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
CulturePoliticsTweet MarketsRecurring
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 15.7% | +4.8 |
| 240-259 | 15.3% | +3.7 |
| 200-219 | 14.7% | +6.3 |
| 180-199 | 10.5% | +5.8 |
| 260-279 | 10.5% | -2.1 |
| 280-299 | 7.5% | -7.0 |
| 160-179 | 5.9% | +3.9 |
| 300-319 | 5.3% | -6.7 |
| 320-339 | 3.6% | -7.9 |
| 140-159 | 3.4% | +2.4 |
| 340-359 | 2.4% | -4.1 |
| 360-379 | 1.7% | -2.3 |
| 120-139 | 1.3% | +0.8 |
| 380-399 | 1.1% | -1.6 |
| 400-419 | 0.7% | -0.9 |
| 420-439 | 0.5% | -0.6 |
| 440-459 | 0.4% | -0.4 |
| 460-479 | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| 480-499 | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| 100-119 | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 500-519 | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 60-79 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 80-99 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 520-539 | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 540-559 | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 560-579 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 580+ | 0.1% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 3 12:00 PM ET to November 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 220-239 is the favorite at 15.7%, followed by 240-259 at 15.3%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 10, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $511K in total and $221K in the last 24 hours, with about $258K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.