2026 Midterms: House Turnout: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 120-125m at 71.0%, ahead of 115-120m at 14.0%. $51K traded across 11 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
ElectionsPoliticsvotesCongressUS Election
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 120-125m | 71.0% | +14.0 |
| 115-120m | 14.0% | -9.5 |
| 125-130m | 4.0% | -14.5 |
| 130m+ | 2.6% | -0.1 |
| 105-110m | 2.5% | -2.4 |
| 100-105m | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| 110-115m | 0.9% | -0.2 |
| 95-100m | 0.8% | -0.1 |
| 85-90m | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| 90-95m | 0.3% | -0.2 |
| <85m | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "2026 Midterms: House Turnout"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 120-125m is the favorite at 71.0%, followed by 115-120m at 14.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $51K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $60K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.