What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.3% one day before close, 98.2% one week before and 34.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Resolved market scorecard

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?: result and scorecard

Name: Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.3%; a week before, 98.2%. $1.2M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved April 10, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.3%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.2%

30 days before: 34.5%

Volume

$1.2M

1 outcome

Politics Geopolitics Taiwan China Xi

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$1.2M
No	LOST	$1.2M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping meets with Cheng Li-wun by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Xi Jinping and Cheng Li-wun are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.3% one day before close, 98.2% one week before and 34.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.2M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.