What are the odds that Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 76.5% and No at 23.5%, on $127K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 20, 2029. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$127K in total and $8K in the last 24 hours, with about $47K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Live market data

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 76.5% (-2.0 pts in 24h). $127K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

76.5%

No 23.5% · Trade →

24h move

-2.0

pts · 7d -1.0

Volume

$127K

24h $8K · liquidity $47K

Closes

January 20, 2029

807 days left

Earn 3.25%Politics Congress Trump Epstein

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	76.5%	-2.0	-1.0	$127K	3.0¢
No	23.5%	+2.0	+1.0	$127K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 77% risks 77¢ to win 24¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 76.5% and No at 23.5%, on $127K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 20, 2029. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $127K in total and $8K in the last 24 hours, with about $47K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.