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Home / Markets / Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt
Resolved market scorecard

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 83.0%; a week before, 81.5%. $1.4M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved September 7, 2026

Price 1 day before

83.0%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

81.5%
30 days before: 75.5%

Volume

$1.4M
1 outcome

PoliticsGlobal ElectionsElectionsGerman ElectionsGermany

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$1.4M
NoWON$1.4M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%05-1307-1009-07
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 83% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?" resolve?
It resolved No around September 6, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 83.0% one day before close, 81.5% one week before and 75.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.4M across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.