What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 75.5% one week before and 59.5% one month before.

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Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?: result and scorecard

Name: Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 75.5%. $923K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved June 8, 2026

Price 1 day before

100.0%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

75.5%

30 days before: 59.5%

Volume

$923K

1 outcome

Politics World Canada Geopolitics

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$923K
No	LOST	$923K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around December 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 75.5% one week before and 59.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $923K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.