LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Resolved market scorecard

Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?: result and scorecard

Resolved J.D. Vance. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 76.1%; a week before, 32.0%. $2.2M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

J.D. Vance
resolved June 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

76.1%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

32.0%
30 days before: 30.4%

Volume

$2.2M
5 outcomes

PoliticsU.S. x IranGeopoliticsVanceTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
J.D. VanceWON$1.0M
Jared KushnerWON$252K
Steve WitkoffWON$235K
Donald TrumpLOST$460K
Marco RubioLOST$242K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-1505-1906-22
J.D. VanceJared KushnerSteve WitkoffDonald Trump
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 76% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?" resolve?
It resolved J.D. Vance around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 76.1% one day before close, 32.0% one week before and 30.4% one month before.
How much was traded?
$2.2M across 5 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.