Which party will win the House in 2028?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Democratic Party at 77.5%, ahead of Party A at 50.0%. $19K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsElectionsEarn 3.25%US ElectionMain Election
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 77.5% | 0.0 |
| Party A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Party B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Party C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Party D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Party E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Party F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Republican Party | 23.5% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2028 United States general election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2028 general election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2028 United States general election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 121st Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which party will win the House in 2028?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Democratic Party is the favorite at 77.5%, followed by Party A at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $19K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $688K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.