Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Somaliland at 11.0%, ahead of Jordan at 6.5%. $1.9M traded across 12 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsMiddle EastGazaWorldGeopolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Somaliland | 11.0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan | 6.5% | -1.0 |
| Lebanon | 5.0% | 0.0 |
| Qatar | 4.9% | -2.5 |
| Kuwait | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Azerbaijan | 4.5% | -0.1 |
| Egypt | 4.4% | +0.1 |
| Syria | 4.4% | -0.1 |
| Oman | 4.1% | -0.1 |
| Pakistan | 4.0% | -0.5 |
| Turkey | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.1% | -0.6 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Somaliland is the favorite at 11.0%, followed by Jordan at 6.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1.9M in total and $227 in the last 24 hours, with about $244K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.