Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Belgium at 9.0%, ahead of Greece at 7.5%. $765K traded across 11 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsWorldGeopoliticsIsrael
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 9.0% | 0.0 |
| Greece | 7.5% | +0.5 |
| Italy | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| The Netherlands | 7.5% | +1.0 |
| New Zealand | 7.5% | -1.0 |
| United States | 6.3% | -0.1 |
| Israel | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Finland | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Austria | 4.3% | +0.5 |
| Germany | 4.2% | +0.1 |
| Japan | 3.1% | -0.2 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Belgium is the favorite at 9.0%, followed by Greece at 7.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $765K in total and $72 in the last 24 hours, with about $71K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.