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Home / Markets / What will Powell say during March Press Conference?
Resolved market scorecard

What will Powell say during March Press Conference?: result and scorecard

Resolved Inflation 40+ times. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 82.5%; a week before, 77.5%. $49K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Inflation 40+ times
resolved March 18, 2026

Price 1 day before

82.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

77.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$49K
35 outcomes

PoliticsEconomypowellTrumpMentions

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Inflation 40+ timesWON$0
Inflation 50+ timesWON$0
Percent 20+ timesWON$0
Food / Energy 3+ timesWON$0
Dollar 2+ timesWON$0
Gold / OilWON$0
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ timesWON$0
PandemicWON$0
Sorry / PardonWON$0
SuccessorWON$0
Speculate / SpeculationWON$0
Good AfternoonWON$0
VolatileWON$0
RecessionWON$0
WarWON$0
HousingWON$0
Inflation 60+ timesLOST$22K
Shutdown / Shut DownLOST$16K
DistortionLOST$12K
Crypto / BitcoinLOST$0
Supreme CourtLOST$0
Fed / Federal Reserve 7+ timesLOST$0
Nothing 3+ timesLOST$0
CommentLOST$0
Collect / CollectedLOST$0
Delayed / DelayLOST$0
AffordabilityLOST$0
Not our jobLOST$0
PoliticsLOST$0
SimulationLOST$0
Balance SheetLOST$0
SignalLOST$0
RefundLOST$0
ChinaLOST$0
IranLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-0303-1003-18
Inflation 40+ timesInflation 50+ timesPercent 20+ timesFood / Energy 3+ times
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 83% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Frequently asked questions

How did "What will Powell say during March Press Conference?" resolve?
It resolved Inflation 40+ times around March 18, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 82.5% one day before close, 77.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$49K across 35 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.