Resolved market scorecard
What will happen before GTA VI?: result and scorecard
Resolved Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 54.5%; a week before, 56.0%. $23.6M traded in total.
Result
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
resolved May 9, 2026
Price 1 day before
54.5%
Market was a coin flip
Price 7 days before
56.0%
30 days before: 53.5%
Volume
$23.6M
10 outcomes
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | WON |
| Drake releases Iceman | WON |
| Jesus Christ returns | LOST |
| Bitcoin hits $1m | LOST |
| China invades Taiwan | LOST |
| New Rihanna Album | LOST |
| New Playboi Carti Album | LOST |
| Trump out as President | LOST |
| GPT-6 released | LOST |
| Another Pandemic | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Russia-Ukraine CeasefireDrake releases IcemanJesus Christ returnsBitcoin hits $1m
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 55% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "What will happen before GTA VI?" resolve?
- It resolved Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire around July 31, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 54.5% one day before close, 56.0% one week before and 53.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $23.6M across 10 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.