What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the cause or causes to which the U.S. government officially attributes the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13, 2026, between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the ground stop to the listed cause within this timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". More than one market may resolve to "Yes". The ground stop refers to the nationwide departure ground stop the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued on November 13, 2026. A cause qualifies if it is attributed as a cause of the ground stop or of the radio, radar, communications, or other system outage behind it. The listed causes are defined as follows: Equipment or system failure: a malfunction of hardware, software, power, or telecommunications equipment used by the FAA or its contractors, including one set off by maintenance work or accidental damage. A cyberattack, jamming, or sabotage is not a failure. Maintenance or upgrade work: planned maintenance, an upgrade, a configuration change, or a cutover on an FAA or contractor system. Cable cut or physical damage: accidental damage to a cable, line, antenna, or other physical equipment, including by construction work or weather. Software or configuration error: a fault in software, or a wrong setting or configuration, in an FAA or contractor system, including one introduced by an update or upgrade. Telecom carrier or contractor fault: the failure, damage, error, or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network, or a system run by a company other than the FAA, such as a telecommunications carrier or an FAA contractor. SMART AI system: a malfunction or error in, or the deployment or rollout of, the FAA's SMART air traffic management system, including its interaction with other FAA systems. EMP: an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), including one produced by a nuclear or non-nuclear weapon or device, that disrupted or damaged electrical or electronic equipment used by the FAA or its contractors. Solar storms and other natural geomagnetic disturbances will not count. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the listed cause caused the ground stop or the outage behind it. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caus