FAA outage attributed to AI?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to artificial intelligence between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. An attribution to artificial intelligence refers to the outage being caused by an artificial intelligence system, model, or agent, including through its malfunction, error, or autonomous action. This includes AI software used by the FAA or its contractors, as well as an AI model or agent acting outside the control of its developers or operators. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was caused by artificial intelligence. Attributions that do not state that an AI system, model, or agent itself caused the outage, such as a cyberattack carried out by people using AI tools or a statement that AI was only a contributing factor, will not qualify. Statements describing artificial intelligence as the suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out cause of the outage will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by private companies will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of any investigation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.