FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to a foreign actor between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. A foreign actor is any foreign state, including its armed forces (e.g., Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) or intelligence services, or persons acting on their instructions, as well as any organization or group based outside the United States, including proxy or partner groups such as Hezbollah and criminal hacking groups. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by a foreign actor. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused by or on behalf of a foreign actor will also qualify. Statements describing foreign involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with foreign activity, will not qualify. Statements that the outage was caused by a cyberattack or other intentional act without identifying a foreign actor as responsible will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, foreign denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.