FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to an AI sandbox escape between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. An AI sandbox escape refers to an artificial intelligence model or agent breaking out of, or circumventing, the sandbox, test environment, or other technical containment it was confined to, and acting outside it without authorization. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was caused by an AI sandbox escape. Attributions of the outage to artificial intelligence that do not state that an AI model or agent escaped or circumvented its containment, such as a malfunction in AI software deployed by the FAA or a cyberattack carried out by people using AI tools, will not qualify. Statements describing an AI sandbox escape as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by private companies will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of any investigation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.