FAA outage attributed to hack?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to a hack between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. "A hack" encompasses intentional, malicious activity that caused the outage. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was caused by a hack. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused by a hack will also qualify. Statements describing a hack as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with a hack, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.