US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by...?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 25.5%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 23.0%. $196K traded across 3 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
PoliticsGeopoliticsWorldUkraine
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 25.5% | +0.5 |
| June 30, 2027 | 23.0% | +2.0 |
| December 31, 2026 | 3.5% | -0.9 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by...?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 25.5%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 23.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $196K in total and $121 in the last 24 hours, with about $19K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.