Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count. Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify. An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count. Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify. An agreement by Ukraine to limit the nu