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Home / Markets / Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by .
Resolved market scorecard

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?: result and scorecard

Resolved May 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 24.5%; a week before, 39.5%. $44.7M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

May 31
resolved May 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

24.5%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

39.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$44.7M
12 outcomes

PoliticsMiddle EastGeopoliticsTrumpIran

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
May 31WON$4.1M
June 30WON$3.7M
April 30LOST$13.1M
April 15LOST$9.5M
March 31LOST$5.2M
April 21LOST$4.9M
April 7LOST$3.1M
April 24LOST$924K
March 2LOST$128K
March 1LOST$63K
March 7LOST$0
March 15LOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-0704-0305-01
May 31June 30April 30April 15
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 25% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?" resolve?
It resolved May 31 around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 24.5% one day before close, 39.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$44.7M across 12 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.