What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.0% one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / TikTok removed from App Store by September 30?

Resolved market scorecard

TikTok removed from App Store by September 30?: result and scorecard

Name: TikTok removed from App Store by September 30? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.0%. $71K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved October 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.0%

30 days before: –

Volume

$71K

1 outcome

Politics TikTok China Tech

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$71K
No	WON	$71K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok iOS app is no longer available for download on the United States Apple App Store at any point between September 15, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, this will not count as a removal. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "TikTok removed from App Store by September 30?" resolve?: It resolved No around September 30, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $71K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.