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Resolved market scorecard

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved AfD. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.4%. $961K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

AfD
resolved September 7, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.8%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.4%
30 days before: 98.2%

Volume

$961K
34 outcomes

PoliticsWorldGlobal ElectionsWorld ElectionsElections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
AfDWON$142K
CDULOST$527K
SPDLOST$124K
The GreensLOST$57K
The LeftLOST$47K
BSWLOST$37K
FDPLOST$27K
Party AOPEN$0
Party BOPEN$0
Party COPEN$0
Party DOPEN$0
Party EOPEN$0
Party FOPEN$0
Party GOPEN$0
Party HOPEN$0
Party IOPEN$0
Party JOPEN$0
Party KOPEN$0
Party LOPEN$0
Party MOPEN$0
Party NOPEN$0
Party OOPEN$0
Party POPEN$0
Party QOPEN$0
Party ROPEN$0
Party SOPEN$0
Party TOPEN$0
Party UOPEN$0
Party VOPEN$0
Party WOPEN$0
Party XOPEN$0
Party YOPEN$0
Party ZOPEN$0
OtherOPEN$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-1205-2609-07
AfDCDUSPDThe Greens
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner" resolve?
It resolved AfD around September 6, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and 98.2% one month before.
How much was traded?
$961K across 34 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.