Who is favored in "Russia nuclear test by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2026 is the favorite at 3.8%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$6.3M in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $25K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Russia nuclear test by...?

Live market data

Russia nuclear test by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Russia nuclear test by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. $6.3M traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

3.8%

December 31, 2026 · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d -1.6

Volume

$6.3M

24h $0 · liquidity $25K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Politics Geopolitics putin Ukraine Trump

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
December 31, 2026	3.8%	0.0	-1.6	$123K	1.4¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2026 at 4% risks 4¢ to win 96¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Russia nuclear test by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2026 is the favorite at 3.8%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $6.3M in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $25K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.