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Home / Markets / Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?
Resolved market scorecard

Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 98.5%. $8K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved November 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.5%
30 days before: 98.0%

Volume

$8K
1 outcome

PoliticsElectionsPrimariesDerivativesUS Election

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$8K
NoWON$8K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-2210-1211-01
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Marco Rubio being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Marco Rubio or JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Marco Rubio and JD Vance between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional

Frequently asked questions

How did "Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?" resolve?
It resolved No around November 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 98.5% one week before and 98.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$8K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.