French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Dominique de Villepin at 82.0%, ahead of François Hollande at 16.0%. $131K traded across 15 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
ElectionsGlobal ElectionsFranceFrench ElectionFrench Elections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Dominique de Villepin | 82.0% | -1.0 |
| François Hollande | 16.0% | +2.0 |
| Manuel Bompard | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 4.3% | -3.8 |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3.6% | -2.0 |
| Élisabeth Borne | 3.3% | -0.3 |
| François Bayrou | 2.8% | -0.1 |
| Carole Delga | 2.8% | +0.3 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| Valérie Pécresse | 2.5% | -0.2 |
| Michel Barnier | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Jean Castex | 2.4% | +0.1 |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.3% | -0.4 |
| Mathilde Panot | 2.2% | -0.3 |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 1.5% | -0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Dominique de Villepin is the favorite at 82.0%, followed by François Hollande at 16.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on April 18, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $131K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $100K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.