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Home / Markets / Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?
Live market data

Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is March 31 at 4.4%, ahead of December 31 at 2.3%. $52K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

4.4%
March 31 · Trade →

24h move

+0.1
pts · 7d -0.4

Volume

$52K
24h $4K · liquidity $44K

Closes

April 1, 2027
146 days left

FranceappealPoliticsnational rallyFrench Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
March 314.4% +0.1-0.4$10K0.6¢
December 312.3% -1.2-1.8$40K1.5¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%07-1009-0711-06
March 31December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying March 31 at 4% risks 4¢ to win 96¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, March 31 is the favorite at 4.4%, followed by December 31 at 2.3%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$52K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $44K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.