What are the odds that Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 51.5% and No at 48.5%, on $26K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$26K in total and $475 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Live market data

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will France pass a national budget by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 51.5% (-11.5 pts in 24h). $26K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

51.5%

No 48.5% · Trade →

24h move

-11.5

pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$26K

24h $475 · liquidity $3K

Closes

December 31, 2026

56 days left

France Economy Politics budget French Election

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	51.5%	-11.5	0.0	$26K	5.0¢
No	48.5%	+11.5	0.0	$26K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 52% risks 52¢ to win 49¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will France pass a national budget by December 31?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 51.5% and No at 48.5%, on $26K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $26K in total and $475 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.