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Home / Markets / 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 96.3%, ahead of Marine Le Pen at 89.5%. $658K traded across 46 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

96.3%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon · Trade →

24h move

-0.3
pts · 7d +2.9

Volume

$658K
24h $2K · liquidity $515K

Closes

July 1, 2027
237 days left

PoliticsGlobal ElectionsElectionsFranceFrench Elections

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Jean-Luc Mélenchon96.3% -0.3+2.9$34K2.8¢
Marine Le Pen89.5% -1.0+2.0$40K3.0¢
Nathalie Arthaud86.0% +0.5+1.5$9K2.0¢
David Lisnard83.5% +0.5+9.0$35K3.0¢
Raphaël Glucksmann79.5% -2.5-1.5$32K5.0¢
Édouard Philippe78.5% 0.0-3.0$24K1.0¢
Éric Zemmour69.5% +1.0-6.5$22K1.0¢
Fabien Roussel66.5% -14.0-15.0$6K7.0¢
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan62.0% -0.5+1.0$4K6.0¢
Bruno Retailleau38.5% -0.5-5.5$21K5.0¢
Dominique de Villepin38.0% -2.0+3.5$25K4.0¢
François Hollande27.0% +1.0-3.5$48K2.0¢
Marine Tondelier23.5% 0.0+1.5$16K1.0¢
Gabriel Attal21.0% +0.5+0.5$20K2.0¢
François Ruffin18.0% 0.0-1.0$4K2.0¢
Sarah Knafo17.0% -1.0-4.5$42K2.0¢
François Asselineau12.0% 0.0+0.5$16K2.0¢
Jordan Bardella9.5% -0.4-3.5$35K2.8¢
Xavier Bertrand8.2% +0.5+2.4$15K1.9¢
Matthieu Pigasse6.2% 0.0+0.5$18K1.8¢
Michel Barnier5.9% 0.0-0.1$4K0.5¢
Bernard Cazeneuve5.8% +0.3+0.2$13K1.7¢
Michel-Edouard Leclerc5.8% -0.3-0.2$11K1.1¢
Sébastien Lecornu5.7% 0.0+0.1$9K1.0¢
Bally Bagayoko5.7% -0.1+0.7$11K1.0¢
Yaël Braun-Pivet5.5% -0.1-0.2$2K0.7¢
Jean-Michel Fauvergue5.5% 0.0-4.5$5K3.0¢
François Bayrou5.2% 0.0+0.1$5K0.8¢
Élisabeth Borne5.2% +0.1-1.1$4K1.2¢
Olivier Faure4.9% -0.5-0.2$8K1.2¢
Jean Castex4.9% 0.0-0.1$4K0.4¢
Manuel Bompard4.9% 0.00.0$5K0.3¢
Karim Bouamrane4.9% 0.00.0$11K0.3¢
Philippe de Villiers4.9% -0.2-0.1$5K1.1¢
Carole Delga4.7% -0.1-0.3$5K0.9¢
Mathilde Panot4.3% 0.00.0$3K0.3¢
Jérôme Guedj4.2% 0.0+0.4$9K1.0¢
Gérald Darmanin4.0% 0.0+0.3$6K0.4¢
Manuel Valls4.0% 0.00.0$1K0.6¢
Juan Branco4.0% -0.5-8.0$14K2.0¢
Valérie Pécresse3.9% +0.1+0.1$1K0.4¢
Teddy Riner3.6% 0.0-5.2$23K1.0¢
Laurent Wauquiez3.3% 0.00.0$22K0.2¢
Delphine Batho3.0% -0.9-7.2$5K1.7¢
Ségolène Royal2.8% 0.0-0.1$6K1.9¢
Clémentine Autain1.9% -0.1-1.7$3K2.4¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%04-2307-3011-06
Jean-Luc MélenchonMarine Le PenNathalie ArthaudDavid Lisnard

Market rules and resolution

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 96% risks 96¢ to win 4¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the favorite at 96.3%, followed by Marine Le Pen at 89.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$658K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $515K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.