French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Candidate A at 50.0%, ahead of Candidate B at 50.0%. $93K traded across 43 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WorldFrancePoliticsElectionsFrench Election
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Candidate A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate P | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Q | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate R | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate S | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate T | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate U | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate V | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate W | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate X | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Y | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Candidate Z | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 45.0% | +1.5 |
| David Lisnard | 18.9% | +0.1 |
| Édouard Philippe | 17.0% | +0.5 |
| Marine Le Pen | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 7.0% | 0.0 |
| Christine Lagarde | 6.6% | +1.8 |
| François Hollande | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| Gabriel Attal | 1.0% | -0.1 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 0.9% | -0.3 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| François Ruffin | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Candidate A is the favorite at 50.0%, followed by Candidate B at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on April 18, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $93K in total and $988 in the last 24 hours, with about $213K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.