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Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is PAN at 73.5%, ahead of PRI at 12.5%. $88K traded across 6 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

73.5%
PAN · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -1.0

Volume

$88K
24h $12 · liquidity $50K

Closes

June 7, 2027
213 days left

PoliticsGlobal ElectionsElectionsMexico ElectionMexico

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
PAN73.5% 0.0-1.0$40K9.0¢
PRI12.5% -1.5-0.9$15K8.6¢
PVEM10.0% 0.0-3.0$14K8.0¢
Morena7.0% -0.1+3.1$6K9.5¢
MC4.2% -0.3+1.1$5K6.8¢
PT0.6% 0.00.0$8K0.8¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%05-2208-1411-06
PANPRIPVEMMorena

Market rules and resolution

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying PAN at 74% risks 74¢ to win 27¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?"?
As of November 6, 2026, PAN is the favorite at 73.5%, followed by PRI at 12.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on June 7, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$88K in total and $12 in the last 24 hours, with about $50K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.