How did "Marco Rubio visits China by...?" resolve?

It resolved December 31 around December 31, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 78.5% one week before and 60.5% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Marco Rubio visits China by...?: result and scorecard

Name: Marco Rubio visits China by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved December 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 78.5%. $95K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

December 31

resolved May 14, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

78.5%

30 days before: 60.5%

Volume

$95K

3 outcomes

Politics Trump rubio Xi Geopolitics

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
December 31	WON	$27K
June 30	WON	$18K
April 30	LOST	$50K

Price history to resolution

December 31June 30April 30

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Marco Rubio visits China by...?" resolve?: It resolved December 31 around December 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 78.5% one week before and 60.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $95K across 3 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.