What are the odds that Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.1% and No at 96.9%, on $109K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$109K in total and $24 in the last 24 hours, with about $12K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026

Live market data

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.1% (+0.2 pts in 24h). $109K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.1%

No 96.9% · Trade →

24h move

+0.2

pts · 7d +0.1

Volume

$109K

24h $24 · liquidity $12K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Politics Taiwan China Geopolitics

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	3.1%	+0.2	+0.1	$109K	0.4¢
No	96.9%	-0.2	-0.1	$109K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.1% and No at 96.9%, on $109K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $109K in total and $24 in the last 24 hours, with about $12K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.