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Home / Markets / Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Resolved market scorecard

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: result and scorecard

Resolved 25-29. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.8%; a week before, 22.5%. $8.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:55 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

25-29
resolved October 31, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.8%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

22.5%
30 days before: 22.5%

Volume

$8.6M
5 outcomes

PoliticsLikudElectionsGlobal ElectionsIsrael

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
25-29WON$2.0M
30-34LOST$4.1M
<20LOST$876K
20-24LOST$833K
35+LOST$819K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-3007-3110-31
25-2930-34<2020-24
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Israel Election: Likud # of seats?" resolve?
It resolved 25-29 around October 28, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.8% one day before close, 22.5% one week before and 22.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$8.6M across 5 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.