India strike on Pakistan by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.