What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.8% one day before close, 28.5% one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Resolved market scorecard

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?: result and scorecard

Name: Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.8%; a week before, 28.5%. $492K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved April 15, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

28.5%

30 days before: –

Volume

$492K

1 outcome

Politics Orban Elections Hungary Election Global Elections

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$492K
No	LOST	$492K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around April 12, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.8% one day before close, 28.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $492K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.