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Home / Markets / Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?
Resolved market scorecard

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?: result and scorecard

Resolved Gavin Newsom. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 60.5%; a week before, 27.0%. $163K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Gavin Newsom
resolved October 31, 2026

Price 1 day before

60.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

27.0%
30 days before: 11.5%

Volume

$163K
9 outcomes

PoliticsElectionsPrimariesDerivativesUS Election

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Gavin NewsomWON$50K
Jon OssoffLOST$67K
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezLOST$39K
Kamala HarrisLOST$4K
Josh ShapiroLOST$3K
Person ALOST$0
Person BLOST$0
Person CLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-2310-1210-31
Gavin NewsomJon OssoffAlexandria Ocasio-CortezKamala Harris
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 61% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a list

Frequently asked questions

How did "Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?" resolve?
It resolved Gavin Newsom around October 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 60.5% one day before close, 27.0% one week before and 11.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$163K across 9 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.