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Home / Markets / ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
Resolved market scorecard

ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved February 8. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 72.0%; a week before, –. $332K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

February 8
resolved February 9, 2026

Price 1 day before

72.0%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$332K
5 outcomes

CultureAITechBig TechApple

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
February 8WON$287K
February 6LOST$15K
February 7LOST$12K
February 5LOST$10K
February 4LOST$8K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-0402-0602-09
February 8February 6February 7February 5
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 72% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Frequently asked questions

How did "ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?" resolve?
It resolved February 8 around February 6, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 72.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$332K across 5 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.