What are the odds that California Tax Spend Audit Proposition?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 45.0% and No at 55.0%, on $2K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$2K in total and $176 in the last 24 hours, with about $42 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / California Tax Spend Audit Proposition

Live market data

California Tax Spend Audit Proposition: live odds and probabilities

Name: California Tax Spend Audit Proposition prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 45.0% (-1.5 pts in 24h). $2K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

45.0%

No 55.0% · Trade →

24h move

-1.5

pts · 7d -7.5

Volume

$2K

24h $176 · liquidity $42

Closes

November 4, 2026

0 days left

Politics Elections California referendum deprec USA Election

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	45.0%	-1.5	-7.5	$2K	80.0¢
No	55.0%	+1.5	+7.5	$2K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

Proposition 41 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 45% risks 45¢ to win 55¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that California Tax Spend Audit Proposition?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 45.0% and No at 55.0%, on $2K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $2K in total and $176 in the last 24 hours, with about $42 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.