What are the odds that California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 50.5% and No at 49.5%, on $340 of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$340 in total and $83 in the last 24 hours, with about $5 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition

Live market data

California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition: live odds and probabilities

Name: California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 50.5% (-1.0 pts in 24h). $340 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

50.5%

No 49.5% · Trade →

24h move

-1.0

pts · 7d +17.0

Volume

$340

24h $83 · liquidity $5

Closes

November 4, 2026

0 days left

Politics Elections California referendum deprec USA Election

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	50.5%	-1.0	+17.0	$340	96.2¢
No	49.5%	+1.0	-17.0	$340	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 51% risks 51¢ to win 50¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 50.5% and No at 49.5%, on $340 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $340 in total and $83 in the last 24 hours, with about $5 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.