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Resolved market scorecard

Berlin State Election Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved Linke. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 65.5%; a week before, 67.5%. $4.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Linke
resolved September 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

65.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

67.5%
30 days before: 43.0%

Volume

$4.5M
24 outcomes

World ElectionsWorldGerman ElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
LinkeWON$642K
AfDLOST$2.6M
CDULOST$459K
SPDLOST$447K
GrüneLOST$249K
BSWLOST$49K
FDPLOST$21K
FWLOST$15K
Party AOPEN$0
Party BOPEN$0
Party COPEN$0
Party DOPEN$0
Party EOPEN$0
Party FOPEN$0
Party GOPEN$0
Party HOPEN$0
Party IOPEN$0
Party JOPEN$0
Party KOPEN$0
Party LOPEN$0
Party MOPEN$0
Party NOPEN$0
Party OOPEN$0
OtherOPEN$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-0204-2709-21
LinkeAfDCDUSPD
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 66% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Berlin State Election Winner" resolve?
It resolved Linke around September 20, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 65.5% one day before close, 67.5% one week before and 43.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$4.5M across 24 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.