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Home / Markets / AOC flips Newsom for 2028 president by December 31?
Resolved market scorecard

AOC flips Newsom for 2028 president by December 31?: result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at –; a week before, –. $4K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved November 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

–
Unknown

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$4K
1 outcome

PoliticsElectionsDerivativesUS ElectionUnited States

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$4K
NoLOST$4K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%11-0411-0411-04
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at – the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's hourly odds value is higher than Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Gavin Newsom in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a

Frequently asked questions

How did "AOC flips Newsom for 2028 president by December 31?" resolve?
It resolved Yes around January 1, 2027.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at – one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$4K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.