What are the odds that Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.3% and No at 97.8%, on $25K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$25K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $6K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Live market data

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.3% (0.0 pts in 24h). $25K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.3%

No 97.8% · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d +0.1

Volume

$25K

24h $0 · liquidity $6K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Politics Crypto Bitcoin Culture Crypto Culture

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.3%	0.0	+0.1	$25K	0.5¢
No	97.8%	0.0	-0.1	$25K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.3% and No at 97.8%, on $25K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $25K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $6K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.