How did "30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.6% one week before and 91.0% one month before.

Home / Markets / 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?

Resolved market scorecard

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?: result and scorecard

Name: 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.6%. $38K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.6%

30 days before: 91.0%

Volume

$38K

1 outcome

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Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$38K
No	WON	$38K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between September 2 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable, other credible reporting may be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.6% one week before and 91.0% one month before.
How much was traded?: $38K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.